Analiza vremenskih razlika u ekstremnim visinama značjanih valova za razumijevanje uskalđenosti između modeliranih i mjernih podataka

master's thesis

• Title (english): Analysis of Temporal Differences in Extreme Significant Wave Heights for Understanding the Alignment Between Modeled and Measured Data
• Author: Anton Batelić
• Mentor: Damjan Bujak (mentor)
• Committee member: Goran Lončar (predsjednik povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Kristina Potočki (član povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Damjan Bujak (član povjerenstva)
• Granter: University of Zagreb; Faculty of Civil Engineering; (Water Research); Zagreb
• Defense date and country: 2024-09-26, Croatia
• Scientific / art field, discipline and subdiscipline: TECHNICAL SCIENCES; Civil Engineering; Hydrotechnology

Abstract

S obzirom na sve veći utjecaj klimatskih promjena i opću vremensku nestabilnost, sve je češća rasprava o procjeni rizika i opasnos􀆟 njihovih posljedica. Jedna od takvih posljedica su obalne poplave, s kojima se na Jadranu često susrećemo. Kako će u budućnos􀆟 mnogi procesi, uključujući mjere zaš􀆟te, posta􀆟 sve više modelirani, 􀆟me će se znatno olakša􀆟 i ubrza􀆟 postupci. Već postoje modeli koji procjenjuju značajne valne visine u svakoj točki Jadrana za različite kategorije, a za njihovo unapređivanje potrebno ih je uspoređiva􀆟 sa stvarnim mjerenjima. U ovom radu usporedit će se vremenska nepodudaranja mjerenja značajnih valnih visina dvaju modela COEXMED i MEDSEA na tri lokacije u Jadranu (pla􀆞orma Ivana, Rijeka i Split) na tjednoj i mjesečnoj bazi te za vrijeme olujnih događaja. Koriste se različite vrste dijagrama od dijagrama vremenske serije mjerenih i simuliranih ekstrema, histograma vremenske nepodudarnos􀆟, dijagrami usporedbe mjerene i simulirane valne visine te boxploit dijagrami s kategorijama nepodudaranja ekstrema. Kada se sumarno svi rezulta􀆟 usporedbe, model COEXMED je pokazao bolje poklapanje kada su u pitanju mjesečni ekstremi, no MEDSEA je uglavnom točniji u slučaju maksimuma olujnih događaja. Iz perspek􀆟ve lokacije, vremenska nepodudaranja su općenito manja za Rijeku, u odnosu na Split i Istru, posebno u slučaju mjesečnih ekstrema.

Abstract (english)

Considering the growing impact of climate change and increasing weather instability, discussions about assessing the risks and poten􀆟al consequences have become more frequent. Coastal flooding, a phenomenon commonly experienced along the Adria􀆟c coast, is one such consequence. As more processes, including protec􀆟ve measures, are expected to become model-based in the future, this will significantly streamline and accelerate certain procedures. Currently, there are models that assess significant wave heights at various points along the Adria􀆟c for different categories. To enhance the accuracy and reliability of these models, it is necessary to validate them against real-life measurements. This thesis examines the 􀆟me discrepancies in significant wave height measurements between two models, COEXMED and MEDSEA, across three loca􀆟ons in the Adria􀆟c (Ivana pla􀆞orm, Rijeka, and Split) on weekly and monthly scales, as well as during storm events. A variety of diagrams are used in this analysis, including 􀆟me series of measured and simulated extremes, 􀆟me discrepancy histograms, comparison diagrams of measured and simulated wave heights, and boxplot diagrams indica􀆟ng categories of discrepancies in extremes. The compara􀆟ve analysis reveals that the COEXMED model aligns more closely with monthly extreme events, while the MEDSEA model generally demonstrates greater accuracy during maximum storm events. Geographically, Rijeka experiences fewer weather discrepancies compared to Split and Istria, especially in the context of monthly extremes.

• Keywords: Klimatske promjene; obalne poplave; COEXMED; MEDSEA; vremensko nepodudaranje
• Keywords (english): Climate change; coastal flooding; COEXMED; MEDSEA; time disparity
• Language: croatian
• URN:NBN: urn:nbn:hr:237:998331
• Study programme: Title: Civil Engineering; specializations in: Construction Management, Transportation Engineering, Geotechnical Engineering, Hydraulic Engineering, Structural Engineering, Construction Materials, Theory and Modeling of Structures; Course: Construction Management; Study programme type: university; Study level: graduate; Academic / professional title: magistar/magistra inženjer/inženjerka građevinarstva (magistar/magistra inženjer/inženjerka građevinarstva)
• Type of resource: Text
• File origin: Born digital
• Access conditions: Open access
• Created on: 2024-10-14 06:21:23