Usporedba metoda definiranja vremenskog niza za proračun vjerojatnosti pojave velike vode na odabranim hidrološkim postajama na slivu Save

master's thesis

• Title (english): Comparison of time series formation methods for flood frequency analysis on the selected gauging stations on the Sava River Basin
• Author: Mihael Ruk
• Mentor: Kristina Potočki (mentor)
• Mentor: Nikola Adžaga (komentor)
• Committee member: Goran Lončar (predsjednik povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Kristina Potočki (član povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Nikola Adžaga (član povjerenstva)
• Granter: University of Zagreb; Faculty of Civil Engineering; Zagreb
• Defense date and country: 2024-09-26, Croatia
• Scientific / art field, discipline and subdiscipline: TECHNICAL SCIENCES; Civil Engineering

Abstract

Cilj ovog rada je usporedba dviju metoda formiranja niza za prognoziranje velikih voda za
određeno razdoblje. Metode koje su korištene, su metoda godišnjih maksimuma (engl. annual
maximum, AM) i metoda prekoračenja (engl. peaks over treshold, POT). Prognoze velikih voda
napravljene su za povratne periode od 5, 10, 25, 50, 100 i 1000 godina, na temelju podataka o
protocima dobivenih iz mjerenja na vodomjernim postajama Zagreb i Kupljenovo koje se
nalaze na dijelu sliva Save u Hrvatskoj. Dobiveni rezultati prikazuju razlike u dobivenim
vrijednostima za povratne periode gdje je POT pokazala veće prognozirane protoke. Metoda
godišnjih maksimuma (AM) pruža jednostavnu i direktnu analizu koja je zbog toga široko
rasprostranjena u inženjerskoj praksi. Ipak, može zanemariti ekstremne događaje koji se ne
javljaju svake godine. S druge strane, metoda prekoračenja praga (POT) uzima u obzir sve
protoke iznad određenog praga, pružajući detaljniji uvid u ekstremne događaje, ali zahtijeva
složeniju analizu i pažljiviji izbor praga.

Abstract (english)

The aim of this paper is to compare two methods for forming a series used in forecasting high
water levels for a specific period. The methods employed are the Annual Maximum (AM)
method and the Peaks Over Threshold (POT) method. High water forecasts were made for
return periods of 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, and 1000 years, based on flow data obtained from
measurements at the Zagreb and Kupljenovo gauging stations, located in the Sava River basin
in Croatia. The results show differences in the predicted values for the return periods, with the
POT method showing higher forecasted flows. The Annual Maximum (AM) method provides a
simple and straightforward analysis, which is why it is widely used in engineering practice.
However, it can overlook extreme values that do not occur every year. On the other hand, the
Peaks Over Threshold (POT) method considers all flows above a certain threshold, offering a
more detailed insight into extreme values, but it requires more complex analysis and a more
careful selection of the threshold.

• Keywords: metoda godišnjih maksimuma; metoda prekoračenja praga; protok; rijeka Sava; teorijske funkcije raspodjele
• Keywords (english): Annual Maximum method; Peaks Over Threshold method; flow; Sava River; theoretical distribution functions
• Language: croatian
• URN:NBN: urn:nbn:hr:237:007294
• Study programme: Title: Civil Engineering; specializations in: Construction Management, Transportation Engineering, Geotechnical Engineering, Hydraulic Engineering, Structural Engineering, Construction Materials, Theory and Modeling of Structures; Course: Construction Management; Study programme type: university; Study level: graduate; Academic / professional title: magistar/magistra inženjer/inženjerka građevinarstva (magistar/magistra inženjer/inženjerka građevinarstva)
• Type of resource: Text
• File origin: Born digital
• Access conditions: Open access
• Created on: 2024-10-07 11:17:33